Dr. Nazeem Muhajarine knows Saskatchewan summers should be savoured.
This year, that’s not just because of the welcome break from the cold.
The University of Saskatchewan epidemiologist said fall won’t just bring snow and falling temperatures, but new challenges for the fight against COVID-19.
“I don’t think we are going to have Christmas concerts the way that we used to this year,” he said.
Like other infectious respiratory viruses, SARS-CoV-2 is believed to spread easier indoors in crowded places with poor ventilation.
Summer offers lots of chances to socialize outdoors at a safe distance. That’s easier said than done at staple winter events like bonspiels, family dinners or holiday parties.
“When you think about winter, people aren’t socializing outdoors, but they bring it inside,” Muhajarine said.
“This year we have to maybe give that a pass.”
Closer quarters aren’t the only challenge. Infectious disease doctor Alex Wong noted winter will also bring flu season, which could put extra pressure on the health system.
He’s urging everyone to get a flu shot this year.
“From a public health standpoint, it’s one of the most important things you can do,” Wong said.
Fall also means tens of thousands of students returning to classrooms.
Saskatchewan’s Chief Medical Health Officer, Dr. Saqib Shahab, said that doesn’t necessarily mean case numbers will rise. He said new cases come from communities, not schools, so the focus should be on keeping overall transmission low.
But the start of school does mean kids will come into contact with more people, which means families may need to rethink their virtual households — the contained “bubbles” of 15 people with whom we can interact without protective measures like physical distancing or using masks. If people in that bubble are older or at risk of falling seriously ill and another member of the bubble is going to school, that could ratchet up the risk.
“Right now, in the summer, we may have expanded our virtual bubble to up to 15 people that may include grandparents and others,” Shahab said Monday.
“But as school starts … we have to be very aware what our virtual bubble looks like.”
Winter is the last thing people want to talk about, especially when temperatures are passing the 30 degree mark and the last weeks of summer are beckoning. But Canadian Mental Health Association worker Jenna Neufeld said people should start planning now, especially if they’re prone to the winter blues.
“Seasonal affective disorder almost becomes a running joke in the winter, but it is something we really do worry about with people,” Neufeld said.
In recent months, her clients been able to meet with her outdoors in parks, go for picnics and otherwise let off steam in a safe setting.
That will change in winter, which can be hard on people’s mental health in the best of years
Neufeld’s advice is to start planning new “bubbles” and routines as soon as possible, and think about other ways of expressing kindness, like delivering packages or letters.
“I think an important thing is to really check in on the people we care about this year,” she said. “I have a feeling the holidays this year are going to hit very different.”
Then there’s the challenge of what Premier Scott Moe has called “pandemic fatigue.”
Recent surveys from the Angus Reid Institute and the Saskatchewan Population Health and Evaluation Research Unit (SPHERU) indicate that while most Saskatchewan people are taking measures to stop the spread of COVID-19, some people aren’t complying with public health recommendations.
Muhajarine, director of community health and epidemiology with SPHERU, said the organization’s voluntary survey has collected 3,000 responses from people across the province about their behaviour during the pandemic over the last 13 weeks.
In May, the number of people deemed high risk in Saskatchewan was 26 per cent of respondents. At the end of July it was 34 per cent.
A recent Angus Reid survey that included 130 Saskatchewan residents found 30 per cent were “cynical spreaders” — people less likely to avoid public places or use a mask indoors around people they don’t live with.
Muhajarine said it’s important to note most people are following health advice.
But to keep compliance up in winter, he suggests there needs to be extra focus on mask use — and some creative solutions to help people maintain social lives safely.
“I think maybe this winter, cities in Canada including Saskatoon and Regina should be looking at encouraging people to go outside when it’s safe and take in the great winter outdoors,” he said.